Who Must Go?

Finally happened

After over a decade of civil war, Bashar al-Assad boarded a plane and left for a life in Russia. A common online meme was the juxtaposition of a Western politician who recently died set side by side with their demand for Assad’s ouster next to Assad cupping his ear. His time was up, but that ruinous civil war marked a few twists in the global order.

Assad was one of a handful of Arab leaders targeted for removal during the Arab Spring. Assad enjoyed being a target after Qadafi’s downfall, and reacted faster and harsher to civil disturbances. Russia also stepped in to not allow a UN permitted No Fly Zone over Syria unlike Libya. The world caught on to the Color Revolution playbook.

Assad himself also caught onto the power of digital media. Assad’s proxies argued for stability over jihadis throwing a nation into chaos. This was a strong message as Libya was (still is) a mess and the Muslim Brotherhood led Egypt was chaotic. Assad made sure that the slick ISIS digital videos were not the only videos spreading online as a famous video showed jihadis engaging in possible cannibalism spread like wildfire, earning the label “liver eaters”. Assad’s strategy picked off different insurgent groups while leaving ISIS visible allowing a stark contrast for the world to see. It was a savvy strategy and allowed for American political opinion to freeze as the idea of being Al-Qaeda’s Air Force was unpalatable to many.

The other interesting turn was Russia directly stepping in to save Assad’s scalp when he was near defeat. Russia intervened, showing that it was okay for intervention without American approval. Russian helicopters and jets likely kept a NFZ from ever happening, but do not forget that on an RNC stage in the ‘15-‘16 election cycle, Sen. Paul and President Trump were the only two Republicans to not support a Syrian NFZ. Syria was a WW3 tripwire that American experts laid out for years to activate.

The dirty alliances America’s CIA and DOD make were also laid bare for Americans to see. Reformed Al-Qaeda with new branding received support roughly months after OBL’s death. Where was ISIS getting support & equipment from? Why did hundreds of millions of training programs yield a handful of freedom fighters? How many pictures of US Senators smiling next to terrorist leaders made the rounds? An evaluation of America’s action happened and is still ongoing.

Assad himself was wiped away quickly and while the true story will never be known, pieces are out there. The economy was in shambles and corruption was rampant. Soldiers were not paid. Electricity was iffy (sanctions). Oil revenue siphoned off by carved out rump states allowed to exist. Israel bruised Hezbollah significantly, and they were major support for Assad throughout the civil war. Iran has enough problems. Russia is tied down elsewhere and already made a deal to keep its naval bases. Turkey and Israel can claw pieces from Syria. Assad did not have the support nor the resources. Men are not going to fight to the death when the outcome is known.

Assad was not an inspirational leader. He was not meant to be, nor trained to be. He was the second son of a secular dictator thrust into the throne when his older brother sped on his way to the airport. He was a scumbag who offered sanctuary for Iraqi insurgents when America was in hot pursuit of them escaping west out of Anbar. For years, reporters will reach out to him for comment as the new Syrian regime flails or descends into chaos. He has his hidden bank accounts, but he will live a quiet life as an ophthalmologist in Russia. It’s a better fate than a deposed and dead dictator and a far less stressful life than most wanted tinpot dictator in the world. He was never meant for that job and maybe more Fredo than Michael Corleone, but his work did show the post-9/11 environment was over.