Vance 2028

The left has an unhealthy fixation on Trump, obviously, to the point where they need to turn their lines of attack into dogma and catchphrases rather than even concrete complains. He lies (about what?). He’s a bully (to who? and did they deserve it?). And he thinks only about himself.

Yet Trump’s choice of JD Vance, the first millennial on a major ticket, is reflects the opposite of this last point. It would have been the easiest thing in the world to choose a non-entity whose main attraction is, like Spiro Agnew or Kamala Harris, making the Big Guy less likely to be assassinated, and maybe picking up a few votes in whatever microconstituency they reflect. Ben Carson would at least have locked in the hoteps.

Or he could have gone strictly tactical. Glenn Youngkin would have put more electoral votes in play. Literally Some Woman would have potentially helped with the female swing voter demographic. Elise Stefanik would have brought in more cash.

Trump did none of this. Instead he went with a comparatively rare move - an ideological successor. JD Vance underperformed in Ohio in his 2022 election versus other statwide Republican candidates, because he actually takes positions, and more importantly associates with those whom the uniparty deems beyond the pale.

His relationship with Trump has been at times fraught, describing him in 2016 as potentially “America’s Hitler”, but he evidently took a face turn prior to his Senate campaign. You could be forgiven for thinking this could be entirely cynical, given Trump’s popularity in Ohio and his ability to elevate Vance to a position he would be unlikely to reach on his own, but there is frankly a lot of money, institutional support, and media attention for a NeverTrump senator, or even a “Trumpism without Trump” candidate like DeSantis, who is willing to do the bit.

So I, and apparently Trump, judge his switch to be genuine. This is important, because the danger of an ambitious vice president is that the uniparty pulls a Mike Pence and makes him queen for a day in exchange for betrayal. We just saw on Saturday that this is not an idle fear.

The other side of this is that if he distinguishes himself, Vance is the natural successor to Trump. Trump has never been a “details” guy, and last time around lacked the kind of hatchet men and competent administrators able to deliver, outside of a few key areas like trade. Vance’s extended social network is replete with #ourguys, which makes it likelier he will be able to insert some into actual positions of power and influence.

Ultimately these social connections are likely more important than Vance’s specific ideological framing or personal relationships, because politics is overwhelmingly about constituencies and personnel rather than policies. Policies are the result of personnel paying off constituencies, not pitches you run up the flagpole to solicit them.

If Trump and Vance can bring those resources to bear to actually dismantle the left networks that have been festering for decades, and do it in a hurry, it’s possible we pull out of the power dive the country has been in for most of living memory.