Leaning on Legitimacy

The game may change but people cling to custom.

Dr. Costin Alamariu’s dissertation has sold far more than any dissertation in recent history. A reader would be hard pressed to think of any other out there that would have sales above a trickle let alone mainstream influence. There is one and it is decades old, well before the lives of readers here. The author recently turned 100 years old. Dr. Henry Kissinger's dissertation was so spectacular that it was printed years later as "A World Restored". His style, his analysis and his critique of the players are excellent and still hold up today. Kissinger mines primary documents to explain the situation, the world and the players so that a layman may understand. While it might seem to be out of date or out of touch as it focuses on the machinations of 19th century statesmanship, it provides 21st century readers with a better feel for a wild era that saw the rise of the nation state and liberalization of governments. It was a European world in flux with rapid changes living with the aftermath of the French Revolution and Napoleon’s reforms. This is for history lovers.

There is another group of people this is for. If one expects the demographic shift and decline of the USA (empire in this meaning) to continue, there are multiple possible outcomes. In order of most likely to least likely, we can envision three scenarios. First, the USA collapses but quickly resets with much lower living standards. Same ever progressive ideological dominance. More of the same, as the players in position to capitalize on the collapse are all left wing but no economic rebound. Second, the USA collapses but resets with a centre-left to centre-right unity party, jettisoning the woke due to competency issues but not giving MAGA what it wants. America’s wonderful natural economic advantages allow a slight recovery of financial conditions. A third, the US imperial order collapses followed by a breakup of the US along ideological and slight ethnic lines with population transfers allowed to accelerate the self-sorting Americans are witnessing already.

Kissinger's "A World Restored" would be useful for a politician attempting to work the last scenario for the (majority white) Rump Red State. In the first couple of scenarios, anyone on the right is trying to protect constituent economic interests and the physical security of the base as the federal entity declines. If you pay attention to Kissinger’s focus on Metternich, one reads how Metternich set the tone as his means and aims were legit as they were accepted by the prevailing customs and treaties, handled very different peer diplomats and ministers, wrestled with the spectre of a revolutionary figure in Napoleon, worked for legitimacy to position Austria as the swing state, and had to deal with the pressure of being a central power on a continent of multiple much more powerful powers. The Metternich role is the role to focus on in Kissinger's review of the late Napoleonic/early Pax-Britannia era.

A neo-Metternich would have to first be a statesman that is willing to be a power broker and molder of the order without seeking personal power. There must be a vision for the future, and not just one’s individual glory. Metternich was known as the prime minister of Europe, but he had little internal power in his government’s domestic affairs. The neo-Metternich would be primarily focused on conserving the power structure of red state America into the new Red entity as the current era's complexity collapses to a simpler form. Can we envision his profile? Tenured possibly just out of office but a kingmaker in the party, well respected, and a true reflection of the ideals of the base. It's setting up the order administratively to enact ideologically the existing worldview that the Red Rump State would want (key would be enforcing the short population transfer period) before the other sides catch on that their worldview is not conducive to long term success. We are running into this issue now as enough centrists can see the Blue urban governance model is a failure. This statesman would have to talk the left into this unshackling them by removing the right wing wreckers. It is an appeal to their arrogance and self-deception with regards to woke world. Outlining the mechanisms of such a split and how these mechanisms would then aid the left in their new partition state to go full purity spiral is a sales job, but it must remain within the ideas of republican government so that the left wing entity does not become in the minds of many a tyranny (it will be but that is the con). Using function, process and appeals to custom, selling opposition on the upside was a Metternich strength.

Metternich tried to place himself in a position to maximize freedom. Kissinger writes, “Freedom of action, the consciousness of having a greater range of choices than any possible opponent, was a better protection than an alliance.” No need to lock oneself into a separate or bust situation, and similar to the Austrian geographic situation, a heartlander political body would also be caught between nations. This freedom of having options relied on the power not locking into one course of action, but leaving multiple choices available, and “arranging the commitments of the other powers” so that one retains the greater freedom. Fools who advocate for National Divorce today propose it with no plan, no thought to it being just one of multiple options nor a moral framework that allows for all to perceive a win for their side.

A move for separation, which truly separates any governmental link between regions, would also need an appeal to true constitutional intent and the rule of law. This is against the liberal living constitution and whatever we are calling the Reddit/Girlboss/Woke Equity application of law in 2023. This appeal though is based on long-standing customs. People love to cite custom even if dead. The cries about the Constitution are modern day Ghost Shirt Dances. It would have legitimacy attached to it through the custom and legal history of the USA. This appeal to law and order is appealing as more people understand that corruption (Deep State, Political, econoic, etc.) is widespread and urban locations have no desire to apply the law to their political client groups. The current anarcho-tyranny regime is clearing the forest for this idea. The message would matter.

By making the Rump Red State position a position based on law and custom, establishing legitimacy as the accepted notion of proper government, the Red entity would become the pivot state for the break-up. Metternich was adept at knowing that territorial concessions did not matter if an ally couldn't be counted on nor if order and power could not be enforced or exercised in said territory. Conceding territory for the right to be fully sovereign within one’s own territory is a fantastic trade. As the central power on the continent, Austria had weaknesses others did not. They had huge borders to defend and a myriad of ethnic groups to govern and control. This would pose the Rockies to the Southeast Rump Red State in a similar fashion as they would have the "North Mexico" state to their southwest, and who knows what may happen to the Acela corridor state or West Coast 10-20 years after population transfer. Despite the USA shredding the Peace of Westphalia concept, this Red statesman would have to consider the laws and rights of their new state as above petty territorial squabbles (federal asset distribution as well).

Commentators note that a nation needs a founding myth. The moment the founding myth is lost does the nation exist? The last 50 years have seen the smearing of the founding of America as the Pilgrim’s story and Jamestown are now associated with genocide of the Indians and slavery. The US imported millions from the entire 3^rd world who have no connection to those myths, call those myths settler colonialism and therefore, national unity erodes. This breakup would allow the original ideals to be transplanted and incorporated into the new founding myths. For example, Acela corridor would use the Puritan freedom seeking tradition to abolitionist New Englanders to Emerson + Thoreau to the new entity’s vessel of enlightened thinking. Rump Red State could use the pioneer/freedom seeking religious settler myth to form the last bastion of freedom and religion in the West. Both places and peoples are heirs to slices of American origin stories that were once used just for our one nation. Propaganda and mythmaking are that easy and effective.

This Red statesman must think long term. Even when destroying an old system, he must lean on customs and processes to project legitimacy. The initial execution of the idea matters. The core features to keep focused on would be population transfers, rights and laws within one’s own borders, and nukes. Population transfers to ensure the types of people that make up the nation that are conducive to one’s way of life. Rights and laws that allow enforcing a nation’s codes without interference are critical to cement the start up.  Yes, nuclear weapons will matter because of international matters. A break up or National Divorce phase might seem farfetched (I agree), but so is thinking a Red Caesar will arise. Pay attention to deep currents. Pressures grow to become existential. Our massive nation and staggering empire have problems of complexity in society along with a cultural split between regions as well as the polarization of politics. It seems implausible, but many things people though implausible a decade ago are happening today.