DeSantoids, Is It Over?

I hate to write another DeSantis post and annoy the readership, but it’s over, right? I’ve written on him not running in ‘24 and just waiting. I tried envisioning a path for him to win. It is a month later and numbers look worse for him. I like him as an effective governor so this hurts to witness. This really is a painful play to see if Trump becomes ineligible and then DeSantis picks up a demoralized voter base that views him as damaged goods. Do not tell the Twitter DeSantoids. These are dark days for them.

Who advised him to enter the race in May? Was it his very cute wife? Was it his inner circle that dreamed of spots in the West Wing? Was it a cabal of donors? We will never know, and who knows? In a freak set of circumstances, he could possibly win it all in November of 2024. This seems far less possible not even two months into his candidacy and is qualified as freakish and reliant on events outside his control (major recession).

Anyone with a brain stem and no pecuniary interests would have seen the benefit of not rushing an announcement. We now know Trump faces a federal trial in August. Charges from DC concerning January 6 wait in the wings. Just wait! We can envision a different course of events.

No announcement means a free hand to not provide hot takes on every, little event. Gov. DeSantis could side-step things he did not feel comfortable answering. His team could continue to loosen him up for campaign appearances while allowing him to engage with the media and public in official events, maintaining his best governor in America image.

The biggest change is Gov. DeSantis could have approached the Trump indictment and handling of Trump in court as a concerned Republican politician, not as a competitor. To borrow from Sam Hyde, DeSantis could have said “Donald Trump needs me? I’ll do it. I can be Trump’s top guy!” All the while planning the next phase in that journey in the fall or winter as The Successor.

There was no need to rush it either because the GOP stable is weak. This is not 2016 when a suite of multi-term governors and senators from the Tea Party wave were ready for their shot at the Big Show. No one becomes governor for any other reason, they all have teams itching to be West Wing technocrats and there are always campaign flunkies hoping for that two year paycheck. Who cares if DeSantis announced in May or October? He was going to be the Golden Boy when he did for the GOP Inc crowd and the scores of NeverTrumpers looking for a savior. Post-federal trial, he would have had many more people begging him to enter the race.

He is damaged goods now. It is a shame because just the body blows he has already taken make ‘28 look like a no-go. There used to be a pattern of debate club type solid second place finishes that set the runner-up for the next cycle (Bush 41, Dole, McCain, Romney). Accelerating events and set in stone demographic changes make this feel less likely. Senators Cruz and Rubio have not even hinted at running this cycle. In another era, Cruz would have been fluffed as having run an amazing, out of nowhere campaign in ‘16 to be an heir apparent. He is just 52 yet that door looks closed.

I’m an optimist. It is a long-shot, but there is a path. He may need to be the guy if the feds can manipulate procedural outcomes to block Trump. We have learned some things. Patience is valuable. Picking your moment is critical. You cannot lab craft memes and video edits that were from the maw of the chans in 2016. Select online influencers carefully. It’s okay to be antisemitic privately if you support the right candidate.

It did not have to be this way. This is a function of the ridiculous multi-year presidential campaign season. It is also a function of an advisor class looking for big pay for as long as possible. There might be something to this failure to launch that shows he is not the right man for the moment and lacks solid judgment. His website? Bad. His e-influencers? Hahahahahahaha. His campaign charisma? Weak. His polling was fading steadily from winter highs. This was the state of his machine and the game and he said, “Let’s do this.”