On May 10th, 2025, India and Pakistan agreed to a ceasefire, brokered by the United States, after weeks of fighting in one of the bitterest military exchanges in years. This followed an attack on Indian tourists in the disputed region of Kashmir where Pakistani militants executed 26 Indian civilians, and follows decades of border skirmishes and conflicts that has never fully abated since the two countries’ bloody separation in the aftermath of India’s independence from the British Empire. What makes this conflict even more dangerous is the repeated threats both sides have made to one another with nuclear weapons. Tonight we review the difficulty of navigating situations that invite strong military responses, but also weigh them against their potential long term strategic implications that an escalating conflict would have on the region and the world at large.
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Hans Lander and Adam Smith
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-- References --
- The Decision to Drop the Bomb, Giovannitti and Freed (1953)
- Nuclear Weapons & Foreign Policy, Kissinger (1957)
- The World at War, Isaacs (1973)
- Soldiers of Reason - The RAND Corporation - with Thomas777, Myth of the 20th Century (2024) - https://myth20c.wordpress.com/2024/07/15/soldiers-of-reason-the-rand-corporation-with-thomas777/
- 2024 Investment Climate Statements: Pakistan, US State Department (2024) - https://www.state.gov/reports/2024-investment-climate-statements/pakistan/
- How backchannels and US mediators pulled India and Pakistan back from the brink, Biswa, Pandey (2025) - https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/clyn617xv4no
- India-Pakistan ceasefire appears to hold after accusations of violations, Kleiderman (2025) - https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cvg9d913v20o
- The Organization for Economic Complexity - Pakistan - https://oec.world/en/profile/country/pak
- Announcing a U.S.-Brokered Ceasefire between India and Pakistan, Rubio (2025) - https://www.state.gov/releases/office-of-the-spokesperson/2025/05/announcing-a-u-s-brokered-ceasefire-between-india-and-pakistan/
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