A Path For DeSantis
Governor Ron DeSantis announced his run for the presidency, making official what many suspected since November. This humble writer advised him not to run. The road is full of obstacles. It is not just the presidency but the GOP nomination that is a major challenge. There is a path for him. Let’s speculate and consider the timeline for the nomination.
DeSantis faces Trump (and also rans) where everyone else has a head start. Trump pushes out policy statements continuously even if they are retreads of things he promised in 2015/2016. DeSantis has the problem of being governor while campaigning and re-centering covid responses as a crucial piece of his pitch. For the GOP base, re-litigating covid helps him a little. DeSantis has a great resume as governor.
He also is dry and not charismatic. This does hurt as politics is about the spectacle and the “show”. Our system turned the presidential candidate into a tv character. The Ivy system Clinton wore the mask of a flyover governor who wasn’t radical (triangulation was real), but he allowed the left to worm further into all institutions. George W. Bush had family pedigree but portrayed the aw shucks Texan. Obama was the ultimate system product whose packaging was cool black guy who spoke so well. Trump spent a lifetime in front of cameras and made a mockery of the sham the system had turned acceptable candidates into.
DeSantis dry approach may help him as a contrast to the fiery, unpredictable Trump. This normal, calm demeanor appeals to older voters as shown in their odd support for Biden and older voters are more reliable voters. Polls show DeSantis’ strength in primary polling is with the older age cohorts. Competency and a solid delivery can help him in a general as a foil to Biden’s confused behavior. He would be wise to stick to that as it offers a contrast. Trying to be Trumpian in style will come off as phony and make him look like a me too type candidate.
National polling for DeSantis looks bad. State by state polling looks better. The bandwagon effect is worth something. Trump has an air of invincibility so DeSantis must move fast. DeSantis opportunity is in the primary schedule where Iowa leads the calendar. In 2016, Trump did not win Iowa. He did not show to the last debate before it, holding a rally with prior Iowa caucus winners supporting him onstage. If DeSantis can win Iowa, it should shift state polling in NH, NV and SC. Pouring money and effort into Iowa should be a priority as Iowa looks closer than NH right now.
That is critical. The pre-primary debates will be important to contrast his style and approach from Trump’s. Trump will come after him, forcing him to maintain an above it all style or fight fire with fire. If Trump bullies him, he has to thread the needle of standing up to the bully while remaining composed. No one has done this so I doubt DeSantis will. Still, it could become a viral sound-byte moment. If DeSantis can win Iowa and close the gap in NH, South Carolina becomes a huge hinge. Currently, Trump is up 15% on DeSantis in SC. Below that initial gap lies opportunity. Nikki Haley pulls 15% in polls and Tim Scott about 10%. If DeSantis can win Iowa, his team should pressure Haley and Scott to drop out a la the Democrats in 2020 before the Super Tuesday slate of primaries. Biden crushing SC thanks to Rep. Clyburn signaled the Democrats to circle the wagons around Biden. Strategic drop outs (not Sen. Warren) allowed Biden to consolidate the non-Bernie vote for that sweep.
If, it’s a big if, DeSantis can win Iowa and the GOP reacts quickly unlike in 2016, he could pull off a win in SC. The Super Tuesday polling would look much better for him. John Kerry came out of nowhere (albeit with massive support from the Kennedy network) and won Iowa to ride that to a string of victories and the nomination. DeSantis needs that early win to crack Trump’s appearance of invincibility. If you look at 2008, Obama did this exact path to Clinton. Surprise win in Iowa, close loss in NH and then big win in SC.
Even if he does win the nom, the general would be an uphill climb. All the obstacles from my prior essay remain. The Trump wing would be upset. The rural vote would soften. The ballot harvesting problem would remain. He would likely fall one state short in the electoral college. Some have compared him to Gov. Walker in 2016. That might be too harsh as Walker’s campaign blew through money at an insane rate, but he was a competent governor with a great resume who was dependent on donors and flip-flopped.
DeSantis’ announcement really hangs on the idea that Trump is going to run into legal issues at the state or federal level that will be too much to run. Worse, the federal system will create a situation where he will be deemed ineligible to run. Whomever is the nominee will inherit a demoralized base in that situation. DeSantis has a path to the nomination, but in all likelihood America will be staring at a semi-coherent octogenarian celebrating a ‘victory’ in November of ‘24.