A Fractured Coalition And Message

Hard to put Humpty Dumpty back together again

The election is over and the hard work of trying to reform or contain an out of step government is upon us. There are many battles and fights ahead of the Trump team, but we should take a moment to enjoy the victory and laugh at our deluded enemies. Laughter is a powerful tool. They thought they had locked it up and had muddied the waters enough with regards to Trump the person that this was a safe win. It was over by eleven o’clock. The tears flowed and we can review their weaknesses. This is a weak coalition, but maybe not for the reasons you suspect.

Exit polls are not very reliable, but a repeated outcome is that everyone broke more for Trump. How could they, shouts the exasperated and tired Democrat news anchor. It is the economy, stupid. It is the immigration, stupid. It is the failure of a return to normalcy, stupid. The left thought it could repeat talking points and win versus the day to day life experiences of the electorate. The emerging Democratic majority had four more years to grow, but somehow the man who promises deportations and a wall won forty five percent of Hispanics. This is a major problem for Democrats because not just the southwest but North Carolina, Georgia, Florida and Texas all have growing Hispanic voting blocs and a 10% slippage there is a roadblock for the Left. This sets the demographic transformation the Democrats were counting on in the South back a decade. This also makes the demographic voting proclivity shift in the Midwest a problem because Democrats do not have any more Joe Bidens on the shelf. Senator Brown of Ohio was pulled left by his party and got the boot in Ohio, so how likely are the old union white guys going to support the latest iteration of woke, identity politics Democrat?

This is a problem and one that they cannot address in one cycle. After wipeouts between 1980 and 1984, the Democrats started a triangulation program led by Wall Street donors. This wave was expressed with the presidential campaigns of Gephardt, Gore and Clinton. Major difference is that today there are no candidates in statewide office that have those moderate policy track records and Americana optics for use. States like Tennessee have become all red with a blue cluster around Memphis. What type of Democrat grows their profile in that environment? A Democrat who mouths the current zeitgeist and wins in a radicalizing party.

The major problem candidates face going forward is a decade long period of having to walk lockstep with the woke era. There is a video library of every Democrat saying the same policy ideas as 2020 Kamala. Roll that beautiful woke Shapiro video! Let’s see a “Best of Newscum” montage blasted across social media! This is a product of punishing any defectors and erasing the idea of nuance and flexibility. They had to say these things to keep their coalition together for statewide election wins. To be cast out meant losing. To defect even just on one issue was cause for cancellation. Kamala herself was caught between the trenches by having to sort of repudiate old statements that are now Democrat dogma demoralizing her base or proudly endorsing them and angering swing voters. Mouthing immigration policies closer to Trump fell flat when the entire administration continued the open borders madness.

It does not end now. This will continue to be a problem as early post-election interviews show leaders not saying they will change a thing about their policies. The left flank is saying Kamala pivoted to the center (does anyone not left wing believe this?) and that cost her the election. State parties are having fights as the pragmatic are arguing for a sensible retreat on some issues while the radicals shout that they will not throw trans kids/Venezuelan gang members/violent criminals under the bus. The left is caught without a coherent message.

The projected winning coalition rested on making abortion the centerpiece of campaign messaging. Suburban women were supposed to shift left. Did anyone look at exit polls and have a good laugh? Harris did manage to make it a top five and in some polls a top three issue. The media banged the drum on this issue and made sure everyone heard how important it was to young women. By how wide of a margin did Harris win it? Single digits. Be careful what you make an important issue because the other side might view it as just as important and vote in the opposite direction.

This is a major issue because Trump managed to show flexibility on it that no prior Republican could display on the national stage. Let the states decide. If not for project 2025’s idiotic policy list, what would the Democrats have had to throw at Trump about it? His own moderate statements? His grey zone messaging which fits with many more Americans? Democrats are locked into an abortion maximalist position. They also were counting on state referendums to help them with GOTV. Did not happen. State results show moderate abortion outcomes or rejections of abortion restriction measures combined with support for Trump. These state by state referendums will slow down to a trickle, and once codified in state law, what do the Democrats have to juice turnout?

What is the unifying message for the left? There is no grand economic plan. If it is simply anti-white messaging, they risk forming a voter identity that spells doom for them. If after eight years of Trump is a racist/fascist/Hitler causes them to lose ground with Hispanics, Asians and even blacks, why risk it? They have to workshop a grand vision. They have to come up with a better election season narrative. They also have to look at their coalition and pick winners and losers. Muslim voters showed in ’24 that it is possible for a piece of the coalition to protest vote and express their anger at their traditional Democrat bosses. That was the product of a careful calculation with regards to Gaza. Calculated decisions to pivot on X or Y issue will leave some segments in their coalition angry. That, dear reader, is when the fun begins.